This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card in Atlanta. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week and that I can not wait to chase these big prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $30k prize, and then I will probably take a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the very first thing I did when wages were published. I put both of these fighters in my cash lineup and I started building out there. I expect this to be among the best fights ever and I think we get ~200 total DK points from this struggle, and the guaranteed win. I am okay with taking the loss when I can guarantee myself over 100 issues together with the stack, but I think 150 is a secure projection for this fight and if we can lock up 3 additional wins we should win the majority of our cash games. Like I always say, we don’t want 6 wins for money games so there is really no need to chase it. Just lock in a safe lineup that you believe will score more than 400 total points and you ought to win more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP drama of the week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP drama of the week since he’s the definition of boom or bust. He either loses or scores more than 100 DK points. That’s what we want in GPPs. This is not a sure pick in him winning it is only a shot at his ceiling that is what we look for in the big GPPs where we’re trying to win the best $30k prize. Krylov has completed all 24 of his own wins and he’s just seen the 3rd round once in his profession. This is a great struggle to target on either side, but I am taking Krylov to get the win and I have a fantastic amount of vulnerability to him this weekend.
Underdog play of the week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I needed to put Poirier here. I adore his floor and I think he’s a live underdog. However, IF he wins, he will 100 percent end up on the 1st place lineup at his 7.1k price-tag. He is likely to score over 100 DK points when he can find a success here and that’s what we are pursuing in GPPs. Even if you believe Max is going to dominate Poirier that I believe that you ought to have at least 1 hedge lineup using Poirier, which is an all-purpose fight for me. Every lineup I build will start with Dustin or Max and I will go on out there. Load up on this battle and make sure you get some Poirier exposure.
Fade of this week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was tough to select a fade of this week this week because I believe that you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to choose a favorite though and I feel the favored with among the reduced ceilings is Salmon. I’m picking him to win but that he will not be heading for any takedowns and if he doesn’t get a finish that he probably doesn’t pay off his $8.6k price . I need at least 10x (86-points) if I am rostering someone and I don’t see him unless he receives a knockout. Taha is tough so that I don’t observe the knockout happening. I think Salmon does make a unanimous decision win here but it probably scores in the 70’s and that won’t win us the large $30k. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 66-41 for +220.23u (+$22,023) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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