This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so I will wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and go out and enjoy the remainder of the day once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I think we ought to have a large edge this week if we place in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those titles they’ve not heard and will only be throwing lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a huge score. I’ll personally be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the 8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s an arduous card this Sunday and I believe we’ll see a lot of people making mistakes in cash games. Whenever I think I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I like to stack it in my cash games and lock in those factors. I believe this battle is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we can see multiple knockdowns too that would help, but I think we readily get over 100+ points combined with both of these men. Let us let everybody else make the mistakes and we could lock in a 100+ points and a win, and then we just need to find another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a win. He has a very slick entry game and if this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up advance points quickly and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with submission defense in his profession and even if he is winning on the feet, he still shoots in for takedowns every struggle. I believe if Manny can not get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it will cost him. I believe we can see a 1st round entry here and that should easily get that the 10x+ we are looking for in his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this battle he’ll easily repay this price tag. He has 100-point upside and using a $7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup when he can get there. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped out more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse rivalry. I would not be shocked if Shogun can acquire a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the last couple of years but I think that he has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory here. I really do need exposure to both men in GPPs, however I think you need some vulnerability to Rua if you’re making multiple lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own selections being correct and I can hit the ideal combo. It’s hard to pick one favorite fade this week but I will pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he’ll use takedowns to get the decision win here. So, you would think that sounds great on DraftKings because wrestling racks up points. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and that I don’t see him getting a submission. But I think we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory as we have seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
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