This weekend we have a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC introduction so it is always nice when you are already familiar with the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests are not the greatest, but there’s still a great deal of cash to be obtained. I’ll be chasing the large $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at these big prizes. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I’ll be starting my cash lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC battles have all been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock in a win and receive all the points at the very best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the job done in money games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. But with that triumph locked in, we simply need to find 3 other people we feel good about.
GPP play of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to need to pay $9.5k for a man like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to get a -1000 favorite in Anders. But, I believe that’s what most people will do and that is what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I think we will get him in a somewhat lower ownership due to his massive salary, and he’s got an excellent shot at obtaining a 1st round triumph. If he can get a 1st round KO afterward he’ll have 100 points so he’ll pay off that large salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, then I believe that you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up an end inside this struggle so that I will throw him some GPPs and hope he’s beneath owned.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the effortless value play of the week. Currently, Fili is your gambling popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it is available so I think he’s in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments with the value we are becoming on him, but I am willing to eat that chalk and I don’t want to get burned by entirely fading that value. I really do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to call, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic chance at winning this battle. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ although not by a lot. At $7.5k we do not need a huge score from Fili so any win will likely do the trick. I am not going to pass up on this respect and I think he is the simple underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my own personal prejudice but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in some of my primary ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to attack. I believe that this is going to be a remarkable battle as well and I think that it will be nearer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I think we’ll require a complete from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and that I don’t see that happening. If you do think Dober can get a KO, then you should be playing him. I’ll only be paying up someplace because I am not sure he could find that finish and that I would not be amazed if he lost the fight. I will say that I never seem to use Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burnt again here but I am going to stick with my Dober evaporate and he’ll be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each struggle, my private approaches & recommendations, and also my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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