UFC ESPN 1 & Bellator 215/216
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Matt Mitrione FREE Breakdown:
Sergei Kharitonov comes into this one riding high with the bookies after defeating Roy Nelson, but at age 38 his abilities will probably not be improving. Mitrione has the superior technique, durability and power status which should see him with a reasonable benefit. Kharitonov will be looking to acquire the fight down but it will be hard given Mitrione’s superior athleticism. Anticipate a tentative beginning from both men before Mitrione starts amassing strikes to get a TKO stoppage.
Bet = Mitrione at 1.95 (-105) odds. Risk 3 Units to acquire 2.85 Units.Francis Ngannou Breakdown:
Cain is coming to this struggle after a significant injury layoff. In fact he’s had just one success since Ngannou entered the UFC, having fought 9 occasions himself. With so many question marks on his condition the fight seems to be lined too wide. Ngannou clearly has huge stopping power and will be very dangerous on the feet early. If Cain has lost a step or comes from looking slow he is in trouble. Historically his style attracts a whole lot of pressure to competitions but he’s open to taking shots himself, especially when gassed. Both guys have paths to success here, Ngannou can keep the fight standing and find an early KO. Cain will wish to avoid the early storm and seem to wear the larger man out using takedowns and cage pressure. We like the underdog in what looks like a 50/50 fight going in. However, the winner of the fight is very likely to look dominant.
Bet = Ngannou at 2.65 (+165) odds. Risk 2 Units to acquire 3.3 Units.
James Vick Breakdown:
Vick’s inventory is at an all-time low after his recent KO but his conduct to the top was impressive. Inside this matchup he’ll be the superior technical fighter with both the length and speed advantage. Felder has a tendency to mimic his opponent but he will have to turn this one into a brawl to find victory. It’s possible he joins with a kill shot, but the rest of the paths to success are in Vick’s favour. Felder takes a close range fight to use his very best weapons but Vick has shown he can stick into a gameplan and keep it at range. We like the line on Vick to cruise to success with a medical decision.
Bet = Vick in 1.91 (-110) odds. Risk 3 Units to win 2.73 Units.
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